THE 2003 BLACKOUT: THEN. NOW. AND HOW TO PREVENT THE NEXT BIG BLACKOUT

August 11, 2023

Updated August 13, 4:00 PM

ISSUE BRIEF

THE 2003 BLACKOUT: THEN. NOW. AND HOW TO PREVENT THE NEXT BIG BLACKOUT

2003 Blackout Summary Impacts

×   $1 billion in lost economic activity in New York City alone[i]

×   15 million people across New York State, many for 24+ hours[ii]

×   400,000 people stranded after entire New York City Transit subway system stopped[iii]

×   Hundreds of flights at grounded at Kennedy, LaGuardia, & Newark airports[iv]

×   40,000 New York City police officers and the entire New York City Fire Department mobilized[v]

×   90 deaths in New York City[vi]

The 2003 Northeast blackout was a massive power outage that affected the United States and Canada. It occurred on August 14, 2003, and was one of the most significant power failures in history. The ’03  blackout has been blamed for the deaths of up to 90 people and an estimated $7-$10 billion[vii] in economic losses during the 29-hour outage period.

The event started in Ohio, triggered by trees coming into contact with sagging power lines. This led to a cascading failure that affected an estimated 50 million people in the Northeastern United States and Ontario, Canada.

Despite considerable endeavors to improve grid dependability and avert blackouts, the potential for substantial power breakdowns cannot be ruled out. Currently, the New York State Independent Grid Operator (NYISO), responsible for managing the state's electric grid, has been sounding numerous alarms regarding electric supply shortages due to the closure of fossil fuel plants and other changes occurring in the shift toward clean energy.

The NYISO has said that the availability of electricity is “projected to be deficient for all years 2025 through 2033[viii]” if the retirements of vital power plants in the state persistently outpace the introduction of replacement power sources.

Top highlights of the 2003 Blackout include:

• Lives Lost: The 2003 Blackout resulted in upwards of 90 deaths in the affected regions. These fatalities were mainly due to accidents and health issues resulting from the lack of electricity.

• New York City Subway: During the blackout, approximately 400,000[ix] New York City subway riders were stranded in subway cars, of which 600 trains[x] were underground, when the power went out. The situation was challenging for both passengers and authorities, but eventually, everyone was safely evacuated.

• Economic Impact: The total economic impact of the 2003 blackout for New York State was significant. A study conducted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission[xi] estimated the economic losses to be around $7-$10 billion.

Comparison of the Northeast Electrical Grid in 2003 vs. 2023:

Electricity Supply

·   In 2003, there was 40,647 megawatts[xii] (MW) of generating capacity with a power reserve margin of 30%[xiii].

·   In 2023, New York’s generating capacity is 36,894 MW[xiv] and power reserve margins are down to 20%[xv] and, as the grid operator warns, will be soon short 446 MW[xvi], causing cascading power outages if nothing is done.

See attached addendum “New York Power By The Numbers from 2003 to 2023” for more data.

Electric Reliability:

• 2003: The electrical grid in 2003 was not as robust and interconnected as it is today. It was more susceptible to cascading failures and disturbances due to its limited ability to handle transmission overloads.

• 2023: The electrical grid in 2023 has been upgraded and improved to enhance reliability. It has better redundancy, more robust transmission lines, and increased capabilities to handle unexpected events, reducing the likelihood of widespread blackouts.

Procedures to Prevent a Blackout:

• 2003: The blackout in 2003 exposed weaknesses in grid operation and coordination between utilities. It led to a reevaluation of procedures and the implementation of certain measures to prevent similar incidents.

• 2023: Post-2003, various regulations, policies, and guidelines were put in place to enhance grid stability and prevent blackouts. Specifically, NYISO conducts drills as well as developed an “Outage Manual” in the unexpected loss of power. Other steps entail improved monitoring systems, automatic controls, and enhanced coordination between grid operators have been established to respond quickly to potential issues.

What has Changed? What has not Changed? Can a Blackout Happen Again?

Changes:

• Grid Resilience: The electrical grid in the Northeast has become more resilient, reducing the likelihood of cascading failures like the 2003 blackout.

• Coordination: There is now improved coordination among utilities and grid operators, allowing for better information sharing and collaboration in the event of emergencies.

• Technology: Advancements in grid monitoring and control technology have allowed for quicker responses to potential issues and better load management.

Not Changed:

• Vulnerabilities: Despite the improvements, the electrical grid is not entirely immune to blackouts. It remains vulnerable to extreme weather events, cyber-attacks, and other unforeseen circumstances.

• Aging Infrastructure: Some parts of the electrical grid might still rely on aging infrastructure, which could pose risks during exceptional situations.

Can a Blackout Happen Again?

While significant efforts have been made to enhance grid reliability and prevent blackouts, the possibility of a blackout cannot be entirely ruled out. As long as there are external factors beyond the grid's control, such as severe natural disasters or cyber threats, the potential for a large-scale blackout remains. However, the current grid is better equipped to handle such events, minimize impacts, and restore power more efficiently.

What Can Be Done to Avoid the Next Big Blackout?

To achieve a smooth clean energy transition, New York must commit to strengthen electric reliability and embrace an “All of the Above” strategy for creating a dependable, 24/7 cleaner energy grid.

First, prioritizing reliability is essential. Taking a “do no harm approach” will protect the health and safety of millions of New Yorkers by maintaining access to reliable power.

However, a state policy from 2019 appears to prohibit 3,300 MW of electricity, which plays a role in fulfilling increasing demand and maintaining the stability of the energy grid.[xvii] The choice to withhold access to dependable power prior to the implementation of new renewable electricity generation is misguided. Shutting down this power source, as cautioned by NYISO, would result in leaving ratepayers without electricity.

The grid operator foresees a necessity for New York to significantly increase its electricity generation in response to state climate mandates, aiming to electrify various household appliances, building heating systems, and vehicles. The NYISO projects that by 2040, a substantial amount of new or modified generation, ranging from 111 to 124 gigawatts (GW), must be operational, a threefold increase compared to the current thermal generating capacity of 37.4 GW.[xviii]

By adopting a more prudent approach and embracing an "All of the Above Energy Strategy," we can prevent a policy-induced blackout. This strategy includes a "Just Transition" to create jobs and reduce both electricity costs and carbon emissions. In addition to wind, solar and hydro, multiple zero-emission technologies are available to enhance efficiency and decarbonize electricity generation, such as clean hydrogen, renewable natural gas, biogas, thermal energy systems, and advanced nuclear power. These options offer reliable 24/7 operation regardless of weather conditions. Moreover, these eco-friendly infrastructure developments create stable middle-class jobs and ensure long-term reliability.

# # #

The Clean Energy Jobs Coalition-NY desires to prevent upcoming power failures and facilitate a smooth transition to a clean energy system by “Strengthening Reliability” and implementing an “All of the Above Energy Strategy.” This path paves the way for developing the workforce needed and creating middle class sustaining jobs to support a Just Transition to a zero-emission grid.

About the Coalition: The Clean Energy Jobs Coalition-NY – representing more than 225,000 skilled energy workers, management, and affiliate environmental and engineering groups across New York State, aims to provide a sensible voice advocating on key energy issues. Our focus is to foster a green energy economy that creates jobs and savings for New Yorkers, by New Yorkers. Our priority is the advancement of in-state solutions that delivers a clean, affordable, and reliable energy system to power the needs of the Empire State. We seek success and sustainability for New York through local infrastructure investments to establish the foundation for a clean energy environment.  For more visit, www.cleanenergyjobsny.com  

Addendum to Blackout Issue Brief

New York Power By the Numbers from 2003 to 2023

Power Resources

Generating Capacity in 2023                                                          36,894 MW[xix]

Generating Capacity in 2003                                                          40,647 MW[xx]

Changes 2003 to 2023:                                                                       - 10.0%

Total Circuit Miles of Transmission – 2023                                      11,021 miles[xxi]
Total Circuit Miles of Transmission – 2013                                      11,005 miles[xxii]

Transmission Needed to Integrate Long Island wind power - 2023     3,000 MW[xxiii]

The New York Independent System Operator warned that if a 339-mile cable designed to deliver 1,250 MW of emissions-free electricity from Hydro-Quebec to New York City does not come online by 2026, the situation “could lead to reliability challenges in the New York City area.” [xxiv]

In 2021, the New York Public Service Commission identified a need to expand the transmission capability between Long Island, NYC, and the rest of the state by at least 3,000 MW to support state climate mandates for offshore wind requirements.[xxv]

Electricity Portfolio Changes

Fuel Mix – 2023[xxvi]

Coal – 0 MW

Oil – 1,995 MW

Gas & Oil – 19,080 MW

Natural Gas – 4,592 MW

Nuclear – 3,305 MW

Hydroelectric – 4,265 MW

Wind – 2,051 MW

Solar – 154 MW

Other Renewables – 330 MW

Pumped Storage – 1,407 MW

Fuel Mix – 2003[xxvii]

Coal – 6,272 MW

Petroleum – 5,131 MW

Natural Gas – 7,488 MW

Nuclear – 10,819 MW

Hydroelectric – 6,454 MW

Other Renewables – 686 MW

Pumped Storage – -243 MW

Note: A megawatt (MW) is 1,000 megawatts, enough power to generate 800-1,000 typical homes.

[i]   USA Today, “Northeast residents struggle with effects of blackout,” August 14, 2003: http://usat.ly/1c4TErx.

[ii]  Initial Report by the New York State Department of Public Service on the August 14, 2003 Blackout, Feb 2004: http://bit.ly/195CjgU.

[iii]  US Dept of Transportation John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation System Management and Operations, May 2004: http://1.usa.gov/15INhEm.

[iv]CNN, “Power returns to most areas hit by blackout,” August 15, 2003: http://bit.ly/1cEtXfi.

[v]  CNN, “Major power outage hits New York, other large cities,” August 14, 2003: http://bit.ly/1cEtXfi.

[vi] Fox News, “Spike in deaths blamed on 2003 NYC power outage,” Jan 27, 2012: http://fxn.ws/yvK7PM.

[vii] Electricity Consumers Resource Council (ELCON). The economic impacts of the August 2003 Blackout – NRC, February 9, 2004. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1113/ML111300584.pdf

[viii]    “Short-term assessment of reliability: 2023 Quarter 2,” New York Independent System Operator, July 14, 2023, Link: https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/16004172/2023-Q2-STAR-Report-Final.pdf/5671e9f7-e996-653a-6a0e-9e12d2e41740

[ix] NYC DATA. (n.d.). NYCDATA: Disasters. NYCdata | Disasters. https://www.baruch.cuny.edu/nycdata/disasters/blackouts-2003.html#:~:text=In%20NYC%2C%20all%2011%2C600%20traffic,for%20rescue%20in%20stranded%20elevators.

[x]  “The blackout of 2003: The overview; power surge blacks out northeast, hitting cities in 8 states and Canada; midday shutdowns disrupt millions,” Barron, J., The New York Times, August 15, 2003, Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/15/nyregion/blackout-2003-overview-power-surge-blacks-northeast-hitting-cities-8-states.html  

[xi] “The economic impacts of the August 2003 Blackout,” Electricity Consumers Resource Council (ELCON), February 9, 2004, Link: https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1113/ML111300584.pdf

[xii] “Power alert: New York’s Energy Crossroads,” Table 3, page 16, The New York Independent System Operator, March 2001, Link: https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/2223154/2001-Power-Trends.pdf/76414f57-e20d-b17c-142b-5f523fea4afd

[xiii]    “Power alert: New York’s Energy Crossroads,” The New York Independent System Operator, March 2001, Link:  https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/2223154/2001-Power-Trends.pdf/76414f57-e20d-b17c-142b-5f523fea4afd

[xiv]    “2023 Load & Capacity Data Report,” The New York Independent System Operator, April 2023, Link: https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/2226333/2023-Gold-Book-Public.pdf

[xv]    “How the installed reserve margin supports reliability in New York,” The New York Independent System Operator, April 27, 2023, Link: https://www.nyiso.com/-/how-the-installed-reserve-margin-supports-reliability-in-new-york#:~:text=The%20IRM%20represents%20the%20minimum,an%20IRM%20percentage%20of%2020.0%25

[xvi]    “Short-Term Assessment of Reliability: 2023 Quarter 2,” New York Independent System Operator, July 14, 2023, Link: https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/16004172/2023-Q2-STAR-Report-Final.pdf/5671e9f7-e996-653a-6a0e-9e12d2e41740

[xvii]   “Press Release: NYISO Releases Power Trends 2023: A Balanced Approach to a Clean and Reliable Grid,” New York Independent System Operator, June 7, 2023, Link:  https://www.nyiso.com/-/press-release-%7C-nyiso-releases-power-trends-2023-a-balanced-approach-to-a-clean-and-reliable-grid

[xviii]   “Power Trends 2023: A Balanced Approach to a Clean and Reliable Grid,” New York Independent System Operator,  June 7, 2023, Link: https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/2223020/2023-Power-Trends.pdf/ and as presented by NYISO during a webinar titled, “Electrification: How Much We Need” held by the CEJC on March 7, 2023 Link: https://www.cleanenergyjobsny.com/blog/electrification-how-much-we-need-webinar

[xix] New York Independent System Operator, “Power Trends 2023 – By the Numbers,” June 2023.

[xx] New York Independent System Operator, “Power alert: New York’s Energy Crossroads,” Table 3, page 16, March 2001

[xxi] New York Independent System Operator, “Power Trends 2023 – Table VI-2: Mileage of Existing Transmission Facilities,” June 2023.

[xxii] New York Independent System Operator, “Power Trends 2013 – By the Numbers,” May 2013.

[xxiii] New York Independent System Operator, “Power Trends 2023 – Figure 4: New Transmission Projects in New York State,” Page 19, June 2023. 

[xxiv] New York Independent System Operator, “Power Trends 2023 – Figure 4: New Transmission Projects in New York State,” Page 19, June 2023. 

[xxv] New York Independent System Operator, “Power Trends 2023 – Figure 4: New Transmission Projects in New York State,” Page 19, June 2023. 

[xxvi] New York Independent System Operator, “Figure III-2: 2023 Existing NYCA Summer Capability by Fuel Type,” 2023 Load and Capacity Data “Gold Book,” p.109

[xxvii] US Energy Information Administration, “Electric Power Industry Generation by Primary Energy Source, 1990 through 2010,” State Electricity Profile: NY, January 30, 2012.